Horseshoe-Fish Hook Theory: a fresh take on the American political spectrum
Plus, where do we go from here?
Photo by Markus Spiske
Good morning, friends! I’m really excited to talk about today’s topic with you, now that my cup of coffee is bringing that sense of aliveness to my soul. I’m also excited to dive right in because I’m addressing a question that I don’t know the answer to - and in my opinion, those are the best questions.
First things first: vote
I can’t believe I even have to write this, but here we are. As you will read, a single article I read on Substack on Monday sparked this topic. Said article encouraged Americans not to vote in 2024 because it wouldn’t make a difference. On a macro level, that may very well be true.
But every single vote for a candidate could be a vote towards a bill for clean air being passed in the future, a bill to protect the rights of trans people, women, and immigrants, or to pass gun control legislation. Your vote could be a vote for a candidate that will veto a law restricting nationwide abortion or a vote for a candidate that will codify the right to an abortion.
So many people who live here, who contribute to our society, who farm our fields, do not get the right to vote. Incarcerated persons do not get the right to vote. We may not be doing so hot as a democracy, but voting is a democratic ideal this nation strives to uphold. Do it for the Black men and women who fought for the right to vote. Do it for the suffragettes. Do it for your grandmothers, who never got to vote. Do it so you can vote for a candidate you actually like one day.
Giving up is not an option. Not now, not ever.
The love of being right
Perhaps “correct” is the better word for this conversation, since we’ll be talking about the “left” and “right” a lot, politically. I recently discussed with fellow Substacker
the satisfaction that comes, at least for me personally, with knowing I’m correct and showing it. I like to feel smart.This trait has landed me in - and I’m not proud to admit this- a few fights with Internet trolls in the past. It’s not something I’m proud of, but we’ve all got our weaknesses, and mine is thinking that if I just use the facts, I can talk some sense into people.
This isn’t like chainsmoking in that I don’t do it every day or even every week. The first time I remember getting in a fight online with someone was the perfect storm. I was in my freshman year of college, I had the most free time I was ever going to have, Trump was on the cusp of being elected, anti-abortion activists were crawling out of their holes, and I had a roommate egging me on.
Of course, I eventually came to the realization many people who have been in my situation come to: people rarely change their minds, particularly in the face of logic, especially in a polarized political climate, and most importantly, when protected by the anonymity of the Internet. I got tired. I gave up.
It didn’t really happen again until I started writing. And as a vocal advocate for women’s rights, human rights, and a more equitable society, I couldn’t resist taking the bait at a few hateful comments every now and then.
But I have gotten better there is no need for an intervention I swear … so why bring this up now? Well, I was always under the false illusion that only the men who had decided to blame all of their problems on women and/or the far right of us were Internet trolls.
So when I thoughtfully disagreed with a few points in a well-known progressive journalist’s article the other day, I was shocked to get spammed by progressives(?) all day who seemed less interested in having a thoughtful, critical conversation and more interested in telling me how uneducated I was.
Which, maybe. I never claimed to be the most politically educated person. I also never thought I would have a fellow reader on a progressive publication telling me I bought “deep state propaganda.”
This whole debacle and my very verbal processing of it - I like to talk through things that confuse me out loud, hence why I write- led me to something called the Horseshoe Effect.
The idea is simple- if you go far enough to the right or the left, you get to the same place.
I’ve seen a few arguments for and against the horseshoe effect, and frankly, I think arguments opposing and supporting it are both valid. I want to hear what you think and explore why it matters at all.
Let’s dive in, after the coffee break( on my end).
The Horseshoe Theory: Legit or Bulls**t?
The Horseshoe Theory was seen as early as the 1930s, but is widely attributed to Jean-Pierre Faye’s book “A Century of Ideologies”. Spoiler alert: I think many of the ways we see Horseshoe Theory in modern use are complete crap. For example, an article I read about it claims that the far-left discriminates against white men- which, oh, please. This journalist pointed out that Horseshoe Theory is a convenient way for the far-right to point at people on the left who are trying to make actual social change and call them “a woke mob”, for example. It’s true that Horseshoe Theory has many flaws, mainly giving people who are not progressive or for social change a leg to stand on so that they can point at those who are trying to make social change -usually marginalized groups- and call them insane.
I do think Horseshoe Theory has some real-life applications that we tend to look at less in light of the far right constantly painting the left as people who are “trying to indoctrinate our children.”.
Particularly in the wake of the pandemic, people, in general, have felt unsure of who they can put their faith in. Rightfully so- I don’t think we should necessarily put our blind trust in our government or our institutions.
On the far left, that’s begun to look like a lot of privileged white ladies with money putting their faith in Gwenyth Paltrow’s jade egg thingy or vitamin infusions or new age gurus to cure their cancer and their Covid.
This is where I think the horseshoe effect comes into play.
In the past 3 years, you’ve had people preaching anti-establishment on both sides. Messages that center a lack of trust in the government and in science on both sides. Anti-vaxxers on both sides. I think we find the horseshoe effect/theory playing out in society when the far left and far right both forget how to think for themselves.
Non-white people on the left don’t have the privilege of going to Bikram yoga and taking these supplements their teacher *swears* by if they want to see social change. White people on the left can just opt out of being truly progressive. We see horseshoe theory take hold when apathy seizes society. We’re at a point in time of collective fatigue. Many are tired of fighting for change that we feel is never going to come- especially when that change doesn’t directly affect us.
So we look for something else - someone else- to believe in.
When the right weaponizes horseshoe theory as a way to demonize people who are trying to make real social change, it loses credibility as a theory, in my eyes. Most right-wing candidates for the 2024 election can’t even define “woke”.
But when any person, right, left, center, up, or down, loses the ability to think for themselves- I can see how we could all end up, if not in the same place, kind of near each other.
Alternative Theory: Fish Hook Theory
Fish Hook Theory is another popular way to describe looking at the political spectrum. It proposes that the far left is way out at the tip of the hook- the end you would hold. Far-right curves back around( this is the end that would be in the fish) to meet the center. Why? Because centrists are complicit in the actions of the far right.
This is an easy-to-understand framework for me as an anti-capitalist, anti-racist. However, it doesn’t account for those on the left that have wandered into “the US worked with Al-Qaeda”/ 9/11 conspiracy theories territory.
Maybe we need both theories to make sense of our current political landscape.
Food for Thought
I wanted to leave you with some questions and ideas to chew on. The rhetoric surrounding the American government is usually, “ he’s not the candidate I would pick, but he’s what we’ve got”. I find the general dissatisfaction with our options recently a reflection on how the people of this country are moving forward while our government isn’t rising to meet those needs. They’re trying, I think, with the tools and the setup they’ve been given - but somehow we still manage to elect America’s grandfather every 4 years. He rocks the aviators, but c’mon. White people are barely a majority anymore in this country.
What do you think the real problem to be solved is? Underneath all of the other problems this country faces, what needs to be worked through for the U.S. to move forward as a country?
What causes you the most pain about living here?
What are your greatest dreams for America?
What’s the worst-case scenario for our country- and how could it be avoided?
If nothing changes about the way our country runs right now- where do we end up?